I’ve been DB short the Euro for a few weeks now. Is it too late to add to this position? I think Pimpco put out a note on Friday targeting 1.26 on Euro/dollar.
Jim Morey on
February 8th, 2010 8:53 pm
Thanks Karl for the chart that shows performance by sector. This is very helpful information and I appreciate you sharing the pertinent information.
Take Care,
Jim
Franklin Myers on
February 16th, 2010 4:50 pm
China ’round two’–you saw the ‘raising’ of the reserve levels in China. Most reported this as an effort to rein in the lending. And, the markets reacted negatively. You will see more over the coming months, but the lending will not stop–slow, yes, but not stop. We’re now getting reports from Australia that bulk cargo carriers are waiting in que at Newcastle for the loading of coal. And that shipping rates for the vessels are starting to rise quickly. The Chinese market is still going strong. The leaders don’t want to report double digit growth rates and see inflation internally–but it’s probably coming. Look to see if they start removing the subsidies from energy–that is how they slow their markets. Until then it’s mostly noise.
Greece is not the European problem–Italy is. Germany can fix Greece easily, but not Italy. If they are soft on Greece, they will have a big issue later. They’re setting the stage to keep the others in line. Ireland and Portugal are probably resolved. Spain can get there but only after some labor strikes. Italy is the wild card. The Euro zone cannot afford that problem.
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Karl,
I’ve been DB short the Euro for a few weeks now. Is it too late to add to this position? I think Pimpco put out a note on Friday targeting 1.26 on Euro/dollar.
Thanks Karl for the chart that shows performance by sector. This is very helpful information and I appreciate you sharing the pertinent information.
Take Care,
Jim
China ’round two’–you saw the ‘raising’ of the reserve levels in China. Most reported this as an effort to rein in the lending. And, the markets reacted negatively. You will see more over the coming months, but the lending will not stop–slow, yes, but not stop. We’re now getting reports from Australia that bulk cargo carriers are waiting in que at Newcastle for the loading of coal. And that shipping rates for the vessels are starting to rise quickly. The Chinese market is still going strong. The leaders don’t want to report double digit growth rates and see inflation internally–but it’s probably coming. Look to see if they start removing the subsidies from energy–that is how they slow their markets. Until then it’s mostly noise.
Greece is not the European problem–Italy is. Germany can fix Greece easily, but not Italy. If they are soft on Greece, they will have a big issue later. They’re setting the stage to keep the others in line. Ireland and Portugal are probably resolved. Spain can get there but only after some labor strikes. Italy is the wild card. The Euro zone cannot afford that problem.
I’m waiting for your next blog.